The summer of Rafael Nadal’s discontent continued Thursday night when he dropped his fourth hard-court match in eight tries, after a three-set loss, 5-7, 6-4, 7-6 (3) loss to countryman Feliciano Lopez. Nadal has now gone through the most disappointing clay-court season of his career, is 13-9 in his last 22 hard-court matches and is currently getting the sixth-best odds to win the U.S. Open, behind the rest of the Big Four (a group he’s in danger of getting booted from), Stan Wawrinka and an injured Kei Nishikori. All this from a man who was ranked No. 1 as recently as 13 months ago.
Nadal’s loss also denied Americans of just the fourth Federer-Nadal match on U.S. soil, which would have taken place Friday night had Nadal lived up to his end of the bargain. (Federer destroyed top-15 player Kevin Anderson 6-1, 6-1 to earn his berth.) It’s a precipitously fast fall for a player who looked to be assured of an Australian Open title 19 months ago that would have began his real charge toward Roger Federer’s record 17 majors. But now instead of asking how many Slams will win, the question is now whether Nadal will everwin another.
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But that’s a long-term question. In the short term, let’s lament the showdown that didn’t happen between The Fed and Nadal. Thus, fans are left with the far-less interesting Federer vs. Lopez quarter. It could be a perception thing, but this sort of scenario — Federer and Nadal favored in matches that would lead to a showdown the next round and then Nadal failing to convert his side of things — feels like Groundhog Day.
How many times has this happened, particularly in the United States, where the two greatest of their generation seemed to be on a collision course for a meeting before one of them (usually Nadal) lost in the round before? It’s an interesting topic for the G.O.A.T. discussion, which features Nadal fans reciting the pro-Nadal head-to-head record ad nauseam, though, to be fair, that discussion may no longer exist with Nadal in his current tailspin. If he keeps like this, no one can say he’s the best. He might not make the top three when it’s all said and done.
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Federer, it seems, always went deep enough into clay-court tournaments to face (and then lose to) Rafa, yet Nadal lost so many matches on grass and hard courts in which he was due to face the stronger Federer next. Could this have swung their overall head-to-head, which is dominated by Nadal, solely because of his clay prowess.
The good news for Nadal is that he clinched a top-eight seed at the U.S. Open thanks to Marin Cilic’s loss on Thursday (and if you want to talk about struggling players, the reigning Open champ is right in that conversation). But the bad news is that he might not even get to see the fruits of his seeding, not when he’s lost on hard c0urts this year to players ranked No. 34, No. 124 and No. 127, among others.
Rafael Nadal isn’t himself. Will he ever be again?
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